New Zealand has a “genuine right to win” a share of the global AI infrastructure buildout, but must act quickly if it is to convert its renewable energy advantage into a scaled data centre export industry, according to a new report. In Data centres as strategic infrastructure: unlocking value for NZ Inc (February 2026), Boston Consulting Group (BCG) argues that computing capacity globally is expected to more than double by 2030, with hyperscalers and colocation providers adding more than 100GW over the next five years alone.
Overall market CAGR is forecast at 18% between 2025 and 2030, accelerating from 12% in the previous five-year period, driven primarily by generative AI workloads. GenAI demand is projected to grow at 38% CAGR to 2030, compared to 20% for other AI and high-performance computing workloads, and just 6% for traditional enterprise IT. BCG estimates GenAI training alone could contribute around 24GW – roughly 20% – of global data centre growth this decade.
New Zealand currently operates around 125MW of data centre capacity, representing approximately 0.15% of global supply, despite accounting for roughly 0.3% of global GDP. BCG’s modelling suggests domestic demand could add around 300MW by 2035. On top of this, its base export scenario envisages a further 300MW of export-oriented capacity, while a high scenario models 1,000MW of export capacity in addition to domestic growth.
Under the base case – 600MW total new build requiring around 3.5TWh of additional annual generation – BCG estimates up to NZD 70 billion in economic activity could be unlocked by 2035. The high scenario, incorporating 1,300MW of new capacity and approximately 8TWh of additional annual generation, could generate up to NZ$160 billion in economic activity.
The modelling incorporates direct capital expenditure on data centre construction, IT equipment and new generation assets, alongside indirect upstream supply chain impacts. Construction of a single 100MW facility typically supports around 500 full-time equivalent construction roles over a two- to three-year build period, while steady-state operations require around 50 FTEs per 100MW across technical, facilities and security functions.
Energy backed by renewables
Energy is central to the report’s thesis. Electricity accounts for 20-40% of data centre operating expenditure, with a single 50MW hyperscale site consuming 850-1,100MWh per day, which is roughly equivalent to 50,000 households. New Zealand is projected to reach 95% renewable electricity by 2028 and 98% by 2030, with 4.1TWh of new generation currently under construction and a further 3.7TWh consented.
However, BCG warns that incorporating incremental data centre demand of 1.8-4TWh by 2030 would create a 1.4–3.6TWh shortfall against the current renewable pipeline, highlighting the need for additional “shovel-ready” projects and long-term power purchase agreements to maintain price stability and system balance.
The report also points to competitive industrial firmed renewable PPA pricing of NZD90-120/MWh, broadly in line with Nordic markets and below EU benchmarks, alongside untapped geothermal potential of 21TWh from conventional resources and a further 30TWh from supercritical resources.
Network resilience is another pillar of the opportunity. Existing sub-sea cables connect New Zealand to Australia and the US, with new South Island landing points due by 2028, potentially expanding the range of latency-tolerant workloads that can be served offshore.
BCG frames data centres as “strategic infrastructure”, comparable to ports or power grids, arguing that infrastructure decisions made within the next 12 months will shape the country’s economic position in an AI-embedded global economy.
It recommends two priority actions: an enabling policy framework to streamline consenting and ensure new data centres are matched with incremental renewable supply, and a sector-led “orchestrator” to promote a unified global investment narrative. Without coordination, the firm cautions, New Zealand risks being overlooked in favour of established hubs such as Ireland and the US, or emerging markets such as Brazil, where governments have actively positioned data centres as national strategic assets.
