A new Report from the Öko-Institut and commissioned by Greenpeace, suggests that “unregulated data centre development could serve as a boost for fossil fuels and limit renewable energy development”. Further, it states that “strict new guidelines are required to ensure artificial intelligence doesn’t threaten climate goals”
The study focuses also on the likely impact of artificial intelligence on emissions, projecting that “the power consumption of data centres servicing the needs of various applications of AI will be 11 times higher in 2030 than in 2023, with a subsequent increase in emissions from 29 MTCO2-e in 2023 to 166 MTCO2-e in 2030 (a calculation that factors in an increasing share of renewables)”.
The report considers also the environmental ‘burdens’ of the water required for cooling, of additional electronic waste generated by the expansion of data centres and AI capacity, and of the requirement for steel and other critical raw materials.
Jens Gröger, Research Coordinator for Sustainable Digital Infrastructures at Oeko-Institut, states that “in the years ahead, data centres will continue to rely on fossil fuels such as natural gas and coal – with correspondingly high environmental costs.”
The study projects that the climate impacts of AI-specific applications for data centres will overtake cryptocurrency mining in 2026, and other data centre applications (such as file storage and streaming) in 2030.
The review of the study (linked below) highlights a recent study published for The Technology Collaboration Programme on Energy Efficient End-Use Equipment (4E TCP) which found that:
“In Australia, data centres currently use an estimated 8–12 TWh (3–5% of national electricity use) according to investment banks Morgan Stanley and UBS (Hannam, 2024; Kitchen, 2024). Both banks project a rapid increase to 2030, with UBS projecting a more than doubling to 28 TWh by 2030, while Morgan Stanley projects a range of 14– 43 TWh”.
“Of the approximately 230 terawatt hours of electrical energy consumed in Australia in calendar year 2023, the study estimates that 8 to 12 TWh related to data centres, around 3 to 5%”.
“If that number climbs significantly, it could show the same effects in Australia as it has in more data-centre heavy regions such as Ireland and the US, where fossil fuel generators facing exit find new life in the new demand”.
The Greenpeace study suggests three key pathways that the Australian Government should consider in order to ensure that data centres help rather than hinder a sustainable future:
- The introduction of binding transparency and accountability requirements for providers of data centres and AI services, including the collection and publication of key figures relating to data centres, the introduction of an efficiency label for data centres and key figures on their environmental footprint that are specific to AI services.
- Ensuring grid integration and adaptation to renewable energy generation volumes by covering the loads at suitable times with capacities from clean energy or with their own battery storage systems.
- An update of the legal framework to take into account the environmental impact of artificial intelligence. This includes, for example, an impact assessment that provides for a structured and specific environmental assessment of AI systems.
The original article from which this summary is drawn can be found at: https://reneweconomy.com.au/green-energy-transition-at-risk-from-unrestricted-data-centre-development/
A link to the Öko-Institut report is also available via this link – the Greenpeace release can be found in a number of languages at: https://presseportal.greenpeace.de/249941-greenpeace-studie-energiehunger-von-kunstlicher-intelligenz-gefahrdet-energiewende