Europe could experience a shortage of more than 22,000 KM of high-voltage subsea cable capacity between 2026 and 2040, according to a new analysis by TGS | 4C, raising concerns about the delivery of offshore wind and electricity transmission projects. Demand for subsea cables is expected to outpace available manufacturing capacity as deployment accelerates which would result in an annual supply shortfall of up to 27 percent for cables rated above 132 kV.
The whitepaper examined whether the targets set out in the Hamburg Declaration are achievable as nine European countries signed the agreement in January 2026. The declaration aims to support the development of up to 100 GW of cross-border offshore wind capacity in the North Sea by 2050 through expanded offshore wind generation, hybrid assets and interconnector infrastructure.
Rameeza Haq Duggal, Senior Analyst at TGS-4C Offshore, said, “The Hamburg Declaration represents one of the most ambitious offshore energy initiatives currently being pursued in Europe.”
The report also points to constraints in expanding production capacity since lead times for new manufacturing investments range from four to six years between initial investment and commissioning, limiting the industry’s ability to respond quickly to rising demand and increasing the risk of project delays. Interconnector projects also face additional challenges while these projects take an average of 13.3 years to progress from planning to commissioning, potentially complicating efforts to meet long-term offshore energy targets.
European manufacturers continue to dominate the market, securing approximately 91 percent of subsea cable contracts, reflecting a strong preference among developers and governments for regional suppliers.
According to Mordor Intelligence, the Europe submarine power cables market is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 6.5 percent during the forecast period. High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) cables are expected to hold the largest market share due to their efficiency in long-distance power transmission and interconnection systems. Growing demand for HVDC cables in offshore oil rigs and renewable energy projects is expected to drive market growth, while the United Kingdom is anticipated to lead the market, supported by increasing offshore wind energy installations.